($) Nebius: An Investor's Diary
A rollercoaster ride that's not for the faint of heart
I added a new category “Sovereign AI” to our grouping of posts. I will be writing more on this topic – a perfect confluence of technology, geopolitics and business fundamentals – right up the Interconnected alley. Please enjoy some of my previous thoughts on this topic in the new menu.
Today’s post is for our premium members only. If you are reading this in full, thank you for being an Interconnected Premium member! If you aren’t, I hope you become one by scrolling down and tear down that paywall! 😎
Nebius, a GPU cloud company, has been one of our investments I have written the most about over the course of this year. Yesterday, the company announced a massive, multi-year partnership with Microsoft that is worth potentially $19.4 billion dollars. Its stock price shot through the roof the moment this news was announced. It closed today at $95.67, up 49.34%.
In this post, I’ll share some details and the rollercoaster ride of learning, researching, investing, and building a position in Nebius over the last eleven months. It may read like a victory lap, chalk full of survivorship bias. But I hope it offers more insight than that. I hope it presents a raw journey of how hard investing is, how crucial it is to combine technology fundamentals with sharp geopolitical antennae in today’s investing landscape (a core tenet of my fund’s strategy), and how rare it is for an idea to work out to the magnitude of Nebius.
This post will include some details that only my fund’s LPs and institutional investors who’ve seen our pitch deck have been purveyed to. This is not investment advice! If anything, this post will illustrate just how important it is to think independently and never take anything from anyone else or the market’s noise at face value, if you want to excel in the game of investing.
Here is a chart of Nebius’s price over the last 12 months, for your reference, as you trace my journey. Ok, let’s start the rollercoaster ride.
