If you google “catfishing”, you get a plethora of results on its use as a term to describe fake online personas to dupe or scam people on social media and dating apps.
The figure by Kiel Institute is misleading and not fair. They should compare the subsidies received per vehicle by each company rather than the total amount. I bet it will paint a complete different picture.
Have spent my whole career in automotive and Tesla has really shaken up the industry. It is amazing that after all this time many legacy OEMs are still incapable of developing anything competitive with Tesla's HW/SW or charging infrastructure. Instead it's the Chinese OEM's and startups that at least are providing compelling alternatives to Tesla thanks to generous incentives and support from the government. The competition in the Chinese market is brutal right now, so except for the big SOEs it is difficult to predict which players will survive or flourish.
Nice write up Kevin. I agree with most of what you say here. However, since there is always more than a hint of uncertainty about "big brother" monitoring and malpractice in China, foreign investors and businesses should exercise caution when putting money to work there. Dont trust anything, anyone, any data...verify everything from multiple sources and secure everything. With such a high burden for investors and businesses...perhaps it is more prudent to look elsewhere, into other markets where the rules are clear and they are followed....where the data can be trusted.
Sorry I might be negative on China...I just dont feel that the juice is worth the squeeze when one can invest in so many other more dependable international markets. Cheers
What I mean is... maybe there's some truth to the "catfish" idea, but it was cemented on false forecasts by Elon.
I think both sides took advantage of the position of the other.
Tesla got a way better factory that the one they had in California, a one of a kind deal without a joint venture, and a couple of billions in tax breaks.
And the deal brought the Chinese EV industry a way nicer EV model to compete against, that instantly became the #1 best selling
By the way. We could say a similar thing happened with the Tesla factory in Germany. That the German govt "catfished" Tesla.
It has been two years, Elon Musk promised the world and huge production capacity (500,000 cars per year, even a million per year!) but in 2023 it only produced 200,000 cars (for almost one million in Shanghai). --- In these two years, the local manufacturers have benefited from a more experienced player nearby. 2024 models are way (WAY) better than 2022's
The figure by Kiel Institute is misleading and not fair. They should compare the subsidies received per vehicle by each company rather than the total amount. I bet it will paint a complete different picture.
Have spent my whole career in automotive and Tesla has really shaken up the industry. It is amazing that after all this time many legacy OEMs are still incapable of developing anything competitive with Tesla's HW/SW or charging infrastructure. Instead it's the Chinese OEM's and startups that at least are providing compelling alternatives to Tesla thanks to generous incentives and support from the government. The competition in the Chinese market is brutal right now, so except for the big SOEs it is difficult to predict which players will survive or flourish.
Nice write up Kevin. I agree with most of what you say here. However, since there is always more than a hint of uncertainty about "big brother" monitoring and malpractice in China, foreign investors and businesses should exercise caution when putting money to work there. Dont trust anything, anyone, any data...verify everything from multiple sources and secure everything. With such a high burden for investors and businesses...perhaps it is more prudent to look elsewhere, into other markets where the rules are clear and they are followed....where the data can be trusted.
Sorry I might be negative on China...I just dont feel that the juice is worth the squeeze when one can invest in so many other more dependable international markets. Cheers
catfish effect of tesla a thing prc side has discussed for a while, in a good way. here is one example
November 2020 People's Daily - 特斯拉“鲶鱼效应”持续升级 http://paper.people.com.cn/zgnyb/html/2020-11/09/content_2017816.htm
特斯拉这条“鲶鱼”，究竟会引发怎样的效应？
加速动力电池技术升级
9月23日，特斯拉发布全新4680电池，能量密度提高5倍、功率提高6倍、续航能力提高16%、成本降低14%。该电池采用无极耳设计，降低传导距离，减小电芯内阻5-20倍，有效解决散热问题，并提高了充放电峰值功率。特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克表示，4680电池共计节省了约86%的成本。
“特斯拉都在做这样的电池了，国内的动力电池技术水平还差得太远。”一位业内人士对记者说。
在特斯拉电池日上，除了介绍多项电池技术和两款新车之外，马斯克反复提及的一个主题就是要降低动力电池成本。“特斯拉要造所有人都买得起的电动汽车，所以一定要降低电池成本。
But everything that Elon talked about in that 2019 event for the 4680 batteries was... far from the truth
Five years later, Tesla production of the batteries is sluggish https://archive.ph/2SkY8 https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesla-s-struggles-with-4680-cell-production-revealed-in-new-report-from-china-227822.html
and there is still some time until LG and Panasonic start making them https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-4680-battery-production-lg-2024/ + https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/Tesla-supplier-Panasonic-weighs-more-U.S.-battery-investment-in-Kansas on high enough volumes
Meanwhile, EV car makers are getting more and more dependent on traditional, cheap-ish but good enough LFP cells https://cnevpost.com/2024/02/07/global-ev-battery-market-share-in-2023/
What I mean is... maybe there's some truth to the "catfish" idea, but it was cemented on false forecasts by Elon.
I think both sides took advantage of the position of the other.
Tesla got a way better factory that the one they had in California, a one of a kind deal without a joint venture, and a couple of billions in tax breaks.
And the deal brought the Chinese EV industry a way nicer EV model to compete against, that instantly became the #1 best selling
https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2021/01/china-december-2020.html
It is a striking difference what the local competition was producing back then https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQARbn-2YGCJw7PBYJsP6KAz9mMOtyByfN7XwFFdK1yzcTAy6-WaAY2kU-Lt1Y7IeY6KKLuWtqYybL4-t2FYaZg5S_Xgj69n8a7QvcclY6Y-74py_PnGpFGAPVre83_fLA7ig5AzuAsD6k/s16000/CN.jpg -- and what they're selling now (such as the Xiaomi mentioned in the article)
By the way. We could say a similar thing happened with the Tesla factory in Germany. That the German govt "catfished" Tesla.
It has been two years, Elon Musk promised the world and huge production capacity (500,000 cars per year, even a million per year!) but in 2023 it only produced 200,000 cars (for almost one million in Shanghai). --- In these two years, the local manufacturers have benefited from a more experienced player nearby. 2024 models are way (WAY) better than 2022's
For now both the US and EU industries are still behind China's https://www.acea.auto/press-release/eu-electric-vehicle-industry-risks-losing-ground-without-a-robust-eu-industrial-strategy-new-report-finds/