Great update, thanks. Do you have a view on whether the US or China is more dependent on TSMC, and how the opening of the Arizona plant would affect that calculation?
TSMC still operates a profitable fab in China (Nanjing-Shanghai area), but China has been cut off from TSMC's advanced nodes due to US sanctions, so effectively not dependent on TSMC anymore. TSMC Arizona fabs are supposed to give the US more control over the entire supply chain and less vulnerable to conflicts that may happen over the Taiwan Strait, but doesn't add or reduce the dependency angle in my view.
It seems like the biggest winner from all of this is ... TSMC. The Arizona fab is essentially just upsizing the company’s insurance policy against Chinese intervention in Taiwan, subsidized by the US taxpayer. It probably doesn’t matter how long it takes to ramp up, this is a cost that TSMC has had to bear since the US decided it. In the meantime, I’m guessing management will likely stall as long as they can on the second plant, hoping the US govt eventually caves in and pays for all of it.
Great article! I am simply surprised by the following: "sharing of confidential information about operational details and customers." - The CHIPS Act is way more beneficial for the US than for TSMC (at this point), so why does the US government believe they have leverage? Taiwan might need some military protection in the future, but the company behaves as a "protective dome" until China becomes self-sufficient in microchip production. Until then, the US should pour the money first and ask later.
yes, let's destroy the most semicon subsidies and private capital in a perpetual drought area with exponential water, heat, and dust problems. i would have much more respect for any of these companies placing their largest stake near the north coast.
Manufacturing advanced semi-conductors in the United States makes no sense.
There is no expertise nor experience.
All the products go to Asia for assembly anyways.
The labour force is expensive.
The labour force is low quality.
Even with very very generous government subsidies, to benefit from it you would need a stable governance structure; in the United States the government shuts down every 2-3 years when the debt ceiling and federal budget need to be renewed in congress. Any company would be foolish to rely on government promises.
All around terrible decision by TSMC and by extension Taiwan.
Great update, thanks. Do you have a view on whether the US or China is more dependent on TSMC, and how the opening of the Arizona plant would affect that calculation?
TSMC still operates a profitable fab in China (Nanjing-Shanghai area), but China has been cut off from TSMC's advanced nodes due to US sanctions, so effectively not dependent on TSMC anymore. TSMC Arizona fabs are supposed to give the US more control over the entire supply chain and less vulnerable to conflicts that may happen over the Taiwan Strait, but doesn't add or reduce the dependency angle in my view.
It seems like the biggest winner from all of this is ... TSMC. The Arizona fab is essentially just upsizing the company’s insurance policy against Chinese intervention in Taiwan, subsidized by the US taxpayer. It probably doesn’t matter how long it takes to ramp up, this is a cost that TSMC has had to bear since the US decided it. In the meantime, I’m guessing management will likely stall as long as they can on the second plant, hoping the US govt eventually caves in and pays for all of it.
Great article! I am simply surprised by the following: "sharing of confidential information about operational details and customers." - The CHIPS Act is way more beneficial for the US than for TSMC (at this point), so why does the US government believe they have leverage? Taiwan might need some military protection in the future, but the company behaves as a "protective dome" until China becomes self-sufficient in microchip production. Until then, the US should pour the money first and ask later.
yes, let's destroy the most semicon subsidies and private capital in a perpetual drought area with exponential water, heat, and dust problems. i would have much more respect for any of these companies placing their largest stake near the north coast.
Manufacturing advanced semi-conductors in the United States makes no sense.
There is no expertise nor experience.
All the products go to Asia for assembly anyways.
The labour force is expensive.
The labour force is low quality.
Even with very very generous government subsidies, to benefit from it you would need a stable governance structure; in the United States the government shuts down every 2-3 years when the debt ceiling and federal budget need to be renewed in congress. Any company would be foolish to rely on government promises.
All around terrible decision by TSMC and by extension Taiwan.