Another question and skepticism I have on Trump is inflation. I’m not sure if the current policies of Trump 2.0 necessarily address how to fx the problem. He complained about inflation, but he planted the seed of inflation under his presidency.
That's right. I think inflation could get worse if Trump 2.0 implements all that he wanted to implement, though these things have a lagging effect, and he benefits from the momentum of a higher interest rate that will remain high-ish (don't think we'll ever go back to near 0%, nor should we).
What is more unpredictable is how much he will badger the Fed, erode its independence, for the purpose of boosting stock market or whenever GDP turns negative under his term. In this case, he's not alone historically. Republican presidents have had a history of badgering Fed chairman, e.g. HW Bush on Greenspan.
I don’t want to be too provocative. Trump 2.0 will definitely fuel the white supremacy (or anti Asian) trend in US, but do you think it will get worse than now? Democrats haven’t done a very good job to eliminate the division of United States, unfortunately.
I think, by and large, racial relations writ large (not specific to Asian or Chinese Americans) have...stabilized. The infamous "China Initiative" was canceled; though other forms of discrimination continue to perk up. I don't think any single administration (a 4 year period) can be counted to eliminate racial divisions in the US (that was the false hope placed on Obama's 1st term too). It'll take generations. But Trump 2.0, whether that had happened in 2020 or 2024 would certainly turn back the clock more...
Appreciate the forward looking, clear and dispassionate analysis Kevin - something which so many cannot do without revealing their respective biases ideologically. I agree with all the points you make. If the Elbridge Colby grouping achieves influence, China will be seen predominantly as an economic challenger to the US and work on building a SE Asian economic coalition will continue. Importantly you have helped me consider how the markets might react should Trump win. But you also managed to bring your personal interpretation to the work as an Asian American, a mean feat.
Great write up, Kevin. I agree with most of your thoughts on these matters, except one...inflation. I think under Trump, inflation will likely rise higher and stay elevated. Lower taxes, more trade restrictions and pressure to lower interest rates earlier than necessary could lead to less imports, more domestic production at higher costs and therefore higher inflation. Cheers!
Agree. lots of Trump's policies and instincts logically leads to more inflation. I just think he could reap the benefit of the downswing of inflation now, without having had done anything, then badger the Fed to lower interest rates more.
Another question and skepticism I have on Trump is inflation. I’m not sure if the current policies of Trump 2.0 necessarily address how to fx the problem. He complained about inflation, but he planted the seed of inflation under his presidency.
That's right. I think inflation could get worse if Trump 2.0 implements all that he wanted to implement, though these things have a lagging effect, and he benefits from the momentum of a higher interest rate that will remain high-ish (don't think we'll ever go back to near 0%, nor should we).
What is more unpredictable is how much he will badger the Fed, erode its independence, for the purpose of boosting stock market or whenever GDP turns negative under his term. In this case, he's not alone historically. Republican presidents have had a history of badgering Fed chairman, e.g. HW Bush on Greenspan.
I don’t want to be too provocative. Trump 2.0 will definitely fuel the white supremacy (or anti Asian) trend in US, but do you think it will get worse than now? Democrats haven’t done a very good job to eliminate the division of United States, unfortunately.
I think, by and large, racial relations writ large (not specific to Asian or Chinese Americans) have...stabilized. The infamous "China Initiative" was canceled; though other forms of discrimination continue to perk up. I don't think any single administration (a 4 year period) can be counted to eliminate racial divisions in the US (that was the false hope placed on Obama's 1st term too). It'll take generations. But Trump 2.0, whether that had happened in 2020 or 2024 would certainly turn back the clock more...
Appreciate the forward looking, clear and dispassionate analysis Kevin - something which so many cannot do without revealing their respective biases ideologically. I agree with all the points you make. If the Elbridge Colby grouping achieves influence, China will be seen predominantly as an economic challenger to the US and work on building a SE Asian economic coalition will continue. Importantly you have helped me consider how the markets might react should Trump win. But you also managed to bring your personal interpretation to the work as an Asian American, a mean feat.
Great write up, Kevin. I agree with most of your thoughts on these matters, except one...inflation. I think under Trump, inflation will likely rise higher and stay elevated. Lower taxes, more trade restrictions and pressure to lower interest rates earlier than necessary could lead to less imports, more domestic production at higher costs and therefore higher inflation. Cheers!
Agree. lots of Trump's policies and instincts logically leads to more inflation. I just think he could reap the benefit of the downswing of inflation now, without having had done anything, then badger the Fed to lower interest rates more.